Odainn

What are women aged 15–19 in the United States most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old girl in the United States, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are accidental poisoning & overdose, road accidents and suicide — together 53% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.03% (1 in 3,235); over 10 years it is 0.45%.

Next 12 months
0.03%
1 in 3,235
Next 10 years
0.45%
1 in 223
Life expectancy
82
about 65 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's accidental poisoning & overdose.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Accidental poisoning & overdose20%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  2. 02Road accidents20%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  3. 03Suicide13%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.45%
  4. 04Homicide8.2%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  5. 05Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)4.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
  6. 06Other causes3.4%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
  7. 07Other cancers2.5%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  8. 08Heart failure & other heart disease2.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.3%
  9. 09Pregnancy & childbirth2.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  10. 10Congenital conditions2.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
Show the other 37 causes22% together
  1. 11High blood pressure & other circulatory disease1.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.2%
  2. 12Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)1.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  3. 13Leukaemia & lymphoma1.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  4. 14Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  5. 15Diabetes1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  6. 16Other accidents1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
  7. 17Other digestive disease1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  8. 18Brain cancer1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.43%
  9. 19Other lung disease0.95%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  10. 20Pneumonia & flu0.94%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  11. 21COPD & chronic lung disease0.92%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
  12. 22Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.88%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  13. 23Stroke0.87%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.0%
  14. 24Drowning0.60%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  15. 25Kidney disease0.56%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  16. 26Uterine & ovarian cancer0.46%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  17. 27Breast cancer0.45%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  18. 28Alcohol use disorder0.43%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  19. 29Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.42%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.8%
  20. 30COVID-190.39%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  21. 31Other mental health conditions0.37%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  22. 32Drug use disorder0.36%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  23. 33Colorectal cancer0.33%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  24. 34Falls0.25%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  25. 35Liver cancer0.20%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.62%
  26. 36Stomach cancer0.17%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  27. 37Melanoma (skin cancer)0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  28. 38Lung cancer0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  29. 39Cervical cancer0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  30. 40Kidney cancer0.11%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  31. 41Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  32. 42Pancreatic cancer0.04%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  33. 43Oesophageal cancer0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
  34. 44Complications around birth0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  35. 45Parkinson's disease0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  36. 46Bladder cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  37. 47Dementia & Alzheimer's<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old girl in the United States, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United States (2023–2024), CDC. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for women aged 15–19 in the United States?
Accidental poisoning & overdose: 20% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old girl in the United States, followed by road accidents and suicide.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old girl in the United States dies in the next year?
0.03% (1 in 3,235). Over the next 10 years it is 0.45% (1 in 223).
How long can a 17-year-old girl in the United States expect to live?
On average, to about 82 — around 65 more years, based on the United States' current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official CDC mortality statistics for the United States (2023–2024) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.