Odainn

What are women aged 15–19 in Germany most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old girl in Germany, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, road accidents and other neurological disease — together 36% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.02% (1 in 6,035); over 10 years it is 0.18%.

Next 12 months
0.02%
1 in 6,035
Next 10 years
0.18%
1 in 550
Life expectancy
83
about 66 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide17%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
  2. 02Road accidents11%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  3. 03Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)8.1%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  4. 04Other cancers6.9%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  5. 05Other causes6.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  6. 06Congenital conditions5.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  7. 07Accidental poisoning & overdose3.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  8. 08Leukaemia & lymphoma3.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  9. 09Brain cancer3.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
  10. 10Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)3.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.27%
Show the other 34 causes32% together
  1. 11Other accidents2.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.95%
  2. 12High blood pressure & other circulatory disease2.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 10%
  3. 13Heart failure & other heart disease2.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
  4. 14Homicide2.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  5. 15Other mental health conditions2.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.37%
  6. 16Other digestive disease1.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  7. 17Uterine & ovarian cancer1.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  8. 18Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  9. 19Pneumonia & flu1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  10. 20Stroke1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.9%
  11. 21Drug use disorder1.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  12. 22Other lung disease0.89%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  13. 23Drowning0.88%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  14. 24Breast cancer0.86%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  15. 25Stomach cancer0.79%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
  16. 26COVID-190.75%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  17. 27Colorectal cancer0.70%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  18. 28Falls0.69%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  19. 29Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.63%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  20. 30Complications around birth0.62%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  21. 31Diabetes0.57%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  22. 32Cervical cancer0.45%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  23. 33Pregnancy & childbirth0.40%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  24. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.39%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  25. 35Kidney disease0.39%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  26. 36Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.38%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  27. 37Lung cancer0.33%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  28. 38Liver cancer0.30%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
  29. 39COPD & chronic lung disease0.29%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  30. 40Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.26%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  31. 41Pancreatic cancer0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  32. 42Alcohol use disorder0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  33. 43Oesophageal cancer0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  34. 44Dementia & Alzheimer's0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.5%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call TelefonSeelsorge on 0800 111 0 111 or 0800 111 0 222 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old girl in Germany, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Germany (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for women aged 15–19 in Germany?
Suicide: 17% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old girl in Germany, followed by road accidents and other neurological disease.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old girl in Germany dies in the next year?
0.02% (1 in 6,035). Over the next 10 years it is 0.18% (1 in 550).
How long can a 17-year-old girl in Germany expect to live?
On average, to about 83 — around 66 more years, based on Germany's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Germany (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.