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Heart & circulation

Who dies of heart failure & other heart disease?

In the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, 7.5% of men and 9.4% of women eventually die of heart failure & other heart disease. It is the most likely cause of death in 113 of their 1,152 country, sex and age groups.

The risk by age

Chance of dying of heart failure & other heart disease within 10 years, and its share of all the risk at that age — the median of 36 countries. Your own country's numbers are one click away on its page.

Agemenwomen
15–190.01% (2.4% of the risk)<0.01% (2.6% of the risk)
20–240.02% (3.0% of the risk)<0.01% (2.8% of the risk)
25–290.03% (3.7% of the risk)0.01% (3.2% of the risk)
30–340.04% (4.3% of the risk)0.02% (2.7% of the risk)
35–390.07% (4.7% of the risk)0.02% (2.7% of the risk)
40–440.12% (4.9% of the risk)0.04% (2.9% of the risk)
45–490.19% (5.2% of the risk)0.06% (2.9% of the risk)
50–540.29% (4.8% of the risk)0.10% (2.9% of the risk)
55–590.46% (4.7% of the risk)0.18% (3.2% of the risk)
60–640.69% (4.5% of the risk)0.30% (3.8% of the risk)
65–691.1% (4.9% of the risk)0.64% (4.9% of the risk)
70–742.0% (5.6% of the risk)1.5% (6.6% of the risk)
75–793.6% (7.2% of the risk)3.2% (8.2% of the risk)
80–846.3% (8.7% of the risk)6.3% (10% of the risk)
85–899.3% (11% of the risk)10% (12% of the risk)
90–9411% (12% of the risk)13% (13% of the risk)

Where it's the most likely cause of death

Lifetime chance, men: highest and lowest countries

  1. Bulgaria20%
  2. Serbia19%
  3. Luxembourg13%
  4. Belgium11%
  5. Sweden10%
  6. Netherlands10%
  7. Czechia9.8%
  8. Slovenia9.7%
  9. Germany8.9%
  10. Türkiye8.8%
  11. Finland3.4%
  12. Lithuania2.5%
  13. Moldova2.4%

Lifetime chance, women: highest and lowest countries

  1. Bulgaria24%
  2. Serbia21%
  3. Slovenia18%
  4. Luxembourg14%
  5. Belgium14%
  6. Czechia12%
  7. Germany12%
  8. Spain12%
  9. France11%
  10. Sweden11%
  11. Finland2.8%
  12. Lithuania1.8%
  13. Moldova1.3%

What changes the odds

What you can do

  • Keep your blood pressure under control and don't smoke.
  • Keep alcohol low and your weight healthy.
  • Get a heartbeat that races, skips or feels irregular checked.

Act fast: Breathlessness when lying flat, swollen ankles or sudden weight gain: see a doctor soon. Severe breathlessness or chest pain: call your emergency number.

Sources: 2021 ESC Guidelines on heart failure; NHS: Heart failure. General guidance, not medical advice.

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Related: Heart attack & coronary heart disease · Stroke · High blood pressure & other circulatory disease

Questions

At what age is heart failure & other heart disease most likely to be the cause of death?
For men, heart failure & other heart disease takes its largest share of deaths at 90–94: 12% of the risk of dying in the next 10 years, in the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age.
Which country has the highest risk of dying of heart failure & other heart disease?
Of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, Bulgaria has the highest lifetime chance of dying of heart failure & other heart disease for men (20%), and Moldova the lowest (2.4%).
What raises the risk of dying of heart failure & other heart disease?
In large cohort studies, people who smoke died of it about 2.0 times as often as people who never smoked (Carter 2015).

Computed by Odainn from official mortality statistics (Eurostat; ONS, NRS and NISRA; CDC; Statistics Canada) for 36 countries, latest years — how we calculate. Belarus is left out: deaths by cause and age aren't published together there, so the split by cause is our estimate. Population statistics, not a prediction for any individual. Educational, not medical advice.