Who dies of lung cancer?
In the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, 5.1% of men and 3.1% of women eventually die of lung cancer. It is the most likely cause of death in 118 of their 1,152 country, sex and age groups.
The risk by age
Chance of dying of lung cancer within 10 years, and its share of all the risk at that age — the median of 36 countries. Your own country's numbers are one click away on its page.
| Age | men | women |
|---|---|---|
| 15–19 | <0.01% (0.02% of the risk) | <0.01% (0.09% of the risk) |
| 20–24 | <0.01% (0.21% of the risk) | <0.01% (0.47% of the risk) |
| 25–29 | <0.01% (0.60% of the risk) | <0.01% (1.0% of the risk) |
| 30–34 | 0.02% (1.2% of the risk) | 0.01% (1.5% of the risk) |
| 35–39 | 0.04% (2.4% of the risk) | 0.03% (2.6% of the risk) |
| 40–44 | 0.11% (4.2% of the risk) | 0.06% (4.6% of the risk) |
| 45–49 | 0.26% (6.0% of the risk) | 0.15% (7.1% of the risk) |
| 50–54 | 0.52% (8.1% of the risk) | 0.31% (8.9% of the risk) |
| 55–59 | 1.0% (9.8% of the risk) | 0.51% (11% of the risk) |
| 60–64 | 1.7% (10% of the risk) | 0.81% (10% of the risk) |
| 65–69 | 2.2% (9.4% of the risk) | 1.1% (8.2% of the risk) |
| 70–74 | 2.5% (7.1% of the risk) | 1.3% (5.4% of the risk) |
| 75–79 | 2.5% (4.9% of the risk) | 1.2% (3.0% of the risk) |
| 80–84 | 2.2% (3.1% of the risk) | 0.97% (1.5% of the risk) |
| 85–89 | 1.7% (1.9% of the risk) | 0.65% (0.76% of the risk) |
| 90–94 | 0.99% (1.0% of the risk) | 0.43% (0.45% of the risk) |
Where it's the most likely cause of death
- Men 45–49: France, Netherlands
- Men 50–54: Belgium, France, Netherlands, Spain
- Men 55–59: Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, France, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and 2 more
- Men 60–64: Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands and 4 more
- Men 65–69: Belgium, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain
- Men 70–74: Belgium, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Spain
- Women 45–49: Hungary
- Women 50–54: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary and 5 more
- Women 55–59: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France and 16 more
- Women 60–64: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece and 12 more
- Women 65–69: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy and 8 more
- Women 70–74: Canada
Lifetime chance, men: highest and lowest countries
Lifetime chance, women: highest and lowest countries
What changes the odds
- In large cohort studies, people who smoke died of it about 25 times as often as people who never smoked (Carter 2015).
What you can do
- Stop smoking — it causes most lung cancers, and the risk keeps falling for years after you quit.
- Avoid other people's smoke.
- Radon gas at home is the second most common cause — test for it if you live where it's common.
- If you smoke or smoked heavily, ask whether lung screening is offered to you.
Act fast: A cough for more than 3 weeks, coughing up blood, breathlessness or unexplained weight loss: see a doctor.
Sources: WHO: Radon (fact sheet); NHS: Lung cancer — symptoms; EU Council Recommendation on cancer screening (2022). General guidance, not medical advice.
Screening for lung cancer, by country
For people with a heavy smoking history, programmes start at 50 in Germany, Poland and the United States and at 55 in Canada, Czechia and the United Kingdom. Below, each national programme's ages and intervals — the same ones Odainn uses for members' check-ups.
| Country | Who and how often |
|---|---|
| Germany | Yearly low-dose CT, ages 50–75, after 25+ years of heavy smoking (15+ pack-years) — if you still smoke or quit within 10 yearsG-BA lung cancer screening for heavy smokers (statutory since April 2026; breaks of at most 10 years) |
| Poland | Ages 50–74 with 20+ pack-years (now or in the past) — free low-dose CT, no referral neededNFZ lung cancer early detection programme (LDCT, nationwide from October 2026) |
| United States | Every year, ages 50–80, if you have smoked 20 pack-years and still smoke or quit within 15 yearsUSPSTF: Lung cancer — screening (2021, grade B) |
| Canada | Ages 55–74 with a heavy smoking history — ask whether your province offers itCTFPHC: Lung cancer screening (2016); provincial programmes |
| Czechia | Ages 55–74 with 20+ pack-years (now or in the past) — low-dose CT, through your GPCzech lung cancer early detection programme (55–74, since 2022) |
| United Kingdom | Ages 55–74 if you've ever smoked — invited where the NHS programme runs (all of England by 2030)NHS Lung Cancer Screening Programme (UK NSC recommendation, 2022) |
For the other 31 countries we cover, Odainn follows the EU's 2022 recommendation and European guidelines: if you smoke or smoked heavily, ages 50–74 — ask whether it's offered.
Members see which checks are due for themselves and their family, following each person's own country — sources and dates.
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Questions
- At what age is lung cancer most likely to be the cause of death?
- For men, lung cancer takes its largest share of deaths at 60–64: 10% of the risk of dying in the next 10 years, in the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age.
- Which country has the highest risk of dying of lung cancer?
- Of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, Greece has the highest lifetime chance of dying of lung cancer for men (7.5%), and Sweden the lowest (3.0%).
- What raises the risk of dying of lung cancer?
- In large cohort studies, people who smoke died of it about 25 times as often as people who never smoked (Carter 2015).
- At what age does screening for lung cancer start?
- For people with a heavy smoking history, programmes start at 50 in Germany, Poland and the United States and at 55 in Canada, Czechia and the United Kingdom. For the other 31 countries we cover, Odainn follows the EU's 2022 recommendation and European guidelines: if you smoke or smoked heavily, ages 50–74 — ask whether it's offered.
Computed by Odainn from official mortality statistics (Eurostat; ONS, NRS and NISRA; CDC; Statistics Canada) for 36 countries, latest years — how we calculate. Belarus is left out: deaths by cause and age aren't published together there, so the split by cause is our estimate. Population statistics, not a prediction for any individual. Educational, not medical advice.