Who dies of pancreatic cancer?
In the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, 1.7% of men and 1.6% of women eventually die of pancreatic cancer. It is never the most likely cause of death for any one country, sex and age group — but it adds up over a lifetime.
The risk by age
Chance of dying of pancreatic cancer within 10 years, and its share of all the risk at that age — the median of 36 countries. Your own country's numbers are one click away on its page.
| Age | men | women |
|---|---|---|
| 15–19 | 0% (0% of the risk) | 0% (0% of the risk) |
| 20–24 | <0.01% (0.08% of the risk) | <0.01% (0.25% of the risk) |
| 25–29 | <0.01% (0.33% of the risk) | <0.01% (0.51% of the risk) |
| 30–34 | <0.01% (0.63% of the risk) | <0.01% (0.87% of the risk) |
| 35–39 | 0.02% (1.3% of the risk) | 0.01% (1.4% of the risk) |
| 40–44 | 0.05% (1.9% of the risk) | 0.03% (2.2% of the risk) |
| 45–49 | 0.10% (2.4% of the risk) | 0.06% (2.8% of the risk) |
| 50–54 | 0.20% (2.9% of the risk) | 0.12% (3.4% of the risk) |
| 55–59 | 0.32% (3.1% of the risk) | 0.21% (3.9% of the risk) |
| 60–64 | 0.45% (3.0% of the risk) | 0.32% (3.7% of the risk) |
| 65–69 | 0.59% (2.7% of the risk) | 0.46% (3.2% of the risk) |
| 70–74 | 0.73% (2.2% of the risk) | 0.62% (2.7% of the risk) |
| 75–79 | 0.82% (1.6% of the risk) | 0.73% (1.8% of the risk) |
| 80–84 | 0.79% (1.1% of the risk) | 0.72% (1.1% of the risk) |
| 85–89 | 0.62% (0.69% of the risk) | 0.60% (0.71% of the risk) |
| 90–94 | 0.42% (0.43% of the risk) | 0.39% (0.41% of the risk) |
Lifetime chance, men: highest and lowest countries
Lifetime chance, women: highest and lowest countries
What changes the odds
- In large cohort studies, people who smoke died of it about 1.6 times as often as people who never smoked (Carter 2015).
What you can do
- Don't smoke, keep a healthy weight and keep alcohol low.
- There's no screening for people without a high inherited risk — knowing the warning signs matters.
Act fast: Yellow skin or eyes, unexplained weight loss, new diabetes after 50, or tummy or back pain that won't go away: see a doctor.
Sources: NHS: Pancreatic cancer — symptoms; IARC Monographs: tobacco smoking. General guidance, not medical advice.
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Related: Lung cancer · Colorectal cancer · Breast cancer · Prostate cancer · Oesophageal cancer · Stomach cancer · Liver cancer · Cervical cancer · Uterine & ovarian cancer · Leukaemia & lymphoma · Brain cancer · Melanoma (skin cancer) · Kidney cancer · Bladder cancer · Mouth, throat & larynx cancer · Other cancers
Questions
- At what age is pancreatic cancer most likely to be the cause of death?
- For men, pancreatic cancer takes its largest share of deaths at 55–59: 3.1% of the risk of dying in the next 10 years, in the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age.
- Which country has the highest risk of dying of pancreatic cancer?
- Of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, Austria has the highest lifetime chance of dying of pancreatic cancer for men (2.1%), and Moldova the lowest (0.96%).
- What raises the risk of dying of pancreatic cancer?
- In large cohort studies, people who smoke died of it about 1.6 times as often as people who never smoked (Carter 2015).
Computed by Odainn from official mortality statistics (Eurostat; ONS, NRS and NISRA; CDC; Statistics Canada) for 36 countries, latest years — how we calculate. Belarus is left out: deaths by cause and age aren't published together there, so the split by cause is our estimate. Population statistics, not a prediction for any individual. Educational, not medical advice.