Odainn

What are men aged 45–49 in the Netherlands most likely to die from?

For a 47-year-old man in the Netherlands, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are lung cancer, heart attack & coronary heart disease and suicide — together 24% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.17% (1 in 573); over 10 years it is 3.0%.

Next 12 months
0.17%
1 in 573
Next 10 years
3.0%
1 in 34
Life expectancy
82
about 35 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Lung cancer9.0%
    0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.9%
  2. 02Heart attack & coronary heart disease7.8%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.5%
  3. 03Suicide7.5%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.77%
  4. 04Other cancers6.5%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.7%
  5. 05Heart failure & other heart disease5.3%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 10%
  6. 06Colorectal cancer5.0%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  7. 07Stroke3.8%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.5%
  8. 08Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.5%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  9. 09High blood pressure & other circulatory disease3.2%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  10. 10Pancreatic cancer3.1%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
Show the other 34 causes45% together
  1. 11Oesophageal cancer2.9%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  2. 12Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)2.9%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.56%
  3. 13Alcohol use disorder2.6%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.41%
  4. 14COPD & chronic lung disease2.5%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  5. 15Other causes2.5%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  6. 16Brain cancer2.4%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  7. 17Other digestive disease2.4%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  8. 18Leukaemia & lymphoma2.3%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  9. 19Diabetes2.3%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  10. 20Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.2%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  11. 21Road accidents1.7%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
  12. 22Accidental poisoning & overdose1.5%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  13. 23Stomach cancer1.5%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.80%
  14. 24Pneumonia & flu1.4%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  15. 25Mouth, throat & larynx cancer1.4%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.64%
  16. 26Kidney cancer1.3%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.69%
  17. 27Other accidents1.3%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  18. 28Falls1.2%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  19. 29Melanoma (skin cancer)1.1%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  20. 30Liver cancer1.1%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  21. 31Congenital conditions0.95%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  22. 32Other mental health conditions0.77%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  23. 33Drug use disorder0.76%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  24. 34COVID-190.70%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  25. 35Other lung disease0.68%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  26. 36Prostate cancer0.58%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
  27. 37Kidney disease0.56%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  28. 38Bladder cancer0.49%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  29. 39Drowning0.34%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  30. 40Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.28%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  31. 41Dementia & Alzheimer's0.24%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.4%
  32. 42Homicide0.24%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  33. 43Parkinson's disease0.12%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  34. 44Breast cancer0.08%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 113, 113 Zelfmoordpreventie — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 47-year-old man in the Netherlands, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the Netherlands (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 47-year-old man in the Netherlands

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on the RIVM population screening programmes and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 45–49 in the Netherlands?
Lung cancer: 9.0% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 47-year-old man in the Netherlands, followed by heart attack & coronary heart disease and suicide.
What is the chance that a 47-year-old man in the Netherlands dies in the next year?
0.17% (1 in 573). Over the next 10 years it is 3.0% (1 in 34).
How long can a 47-year-old man in the Netherlands expect to live?
On average, to about 82 — around 35 more years, based on the Netherlands' current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for a 47-year-old man in the Netherlands?
Blood pressure check; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Blood sugar test (diabetes). Based on the RIVM population screening programmes and European guidelines.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for the Netherlands (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.