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Lungs

Who dies of COPD & chronic lung disease?

In the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, 3.4% of men and 2.6% of women eventually die of COPD & chronic lung disease. It is the most likely cause of death in 1 of their 1,152 country, sex and age groups.

The risk by age

Chance of dying of COPD & chronic lung disease within 10 years, and its share of all the risk at that age — the median of 36 countries. Your own country's numbers are one click away on its page.

Agemenwomen
15–19<0.01% (0.11% of the risk)0% (0% of the risk)
20–24<0.01% (0.18% of the risk)<0.01% (0.12% of the risk)
25–29<0.01% (0.21% of the risk)<0.01% (0.31% of the risk)
30–34<0.01% (0.37% of the risk)<0.01% (0.40% of the risk)
35–39<0.01% (0.66% of the risk)<0.01% (0.63% of the risk)
40–440.03% (0.94% of the risk)0.01% (0.95% of the risk)
45–490.06% (1.5% of the risk)0.03% (1.5% of the risk)
50–540.14% (2.1% of the risk)0.08% (2.3% of the risk)
55–590.29% (2.6% of the risk)0.15% (2.8% of the risk)
60–640.53% (3.4% of the risk)0.33% (3.1% of the risk)
65–690.89% (4.1% of the risk)0.61% (3.7% of the risk)
70–741.4% (4.2% of the risk)0.92% (3.4% of the risk)
75–792.0% (3.9% of the risk)1.3% (2.9% of the risk)
80–842.5% (3.5% of the risk)1.6% (2.3% of the risk)
85–893.0% (3.4% of the risk)1.7% (2.1% of the risk)
90–943.0% (3.2% of the risk)1.7% (1.8% of the risk)

Where it's the most likely cause of death

Lifetime chance, men: highest and lowest countries

  1. Denmark6.5%
  2. Türkiye6.4%
  3. Norway5.6%
  4. Ireland5.4%
  5. United Kingdom5.3%
  6. Luxembourg5.0%
  7. Malta4.7%
  8. Hungary4.5%
  9. Belgium4.5%
  10. Spain4.3%
  11. Moldova1.4%
  12. Bulgaria1.3%
  13. Slovakia1.2%

Lifetime chance, women: highest and lowest countries

  1. Denmark7.5%
  2. Norway5.9%
  3. Ireland5.8%
  4. Iceland5.7%
  5. United Kingdom5.6%
  6. United States5.1%
  7. Netherlands4.3%
  8. Luxembourg4.3%
  9. Canada4.1%
  10. Türkiye4.1%
  11. Slovakia0.74%
  12. Lithuania0.62%
  13. Latvia0.46%

What changes the odds

What you can do

  • Stop smoking — the most effective step at any stage.
  • Get the flu and pneumonia vaccines.
  • Avoid dust and fumes at work, and stay active.
  • Breathless easily, or coughing every day? Ask for a breathing test (spirometry).

Act fast: Breathlessness much worse than usual, blue lips or confusion: call your emergency number.

Sources: GOLD 2025 report (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease); NHS: COPD. General guidance, not medical advice.

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Related: Pneumonia & flu · Other lung disease

Questions

At what age is COPD & chronic lung disease most likely to be the cause of death?
For men, COPD & chronic lung disease takes its largest share of deaths at 70–74: 4.2% of the risk of dying in the next 10 years, in the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age.
Which country has the highest risk of dying of COPD & chronic lung disease?
Of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, Denmark has the highest lifetime chance of dying of COPD & chronic lung disease for men (6.5%), and Slovakia the lowest (1.2%).
What raises the risk of dying of COPD & chronic lung disease?
In large cohort studies, people who smoke died of it about 28 times as often as people who never smoked (Carter 2015).

Computed by Odainn from official mortality statistics (Eurostat; ONS, NRS and NISRA; CDC; Statistics Canada) for 36 countries, latest years — how we calculate. Belarus is left out: deaths by cause and age aren't published together there, so the split by cause is our estimate. Population statistics, not a prediction for any individual. Educational, not medical advice.