Odainn

What are men aged 50–54 in France most likely to die from?

For a 52-year-old man in France, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are lung cancer, heart attack & coronary heart disease and other cancers — together 26% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.42% (1 in 239); over 10 years it is 6.3%.

Next 12 months
0.42%
1 in 239
Next 10 years
6.3%
1 in 16
Life expectancy
82
about 30 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Lung cancer12%
    0.76% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.0%
  2. 02Heart attack & coronary heart disease7.4%
    0.46% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.7%
  3. 03Other cancers6.6%
    0.41% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.8%
  4. 04Suicide5.1%
    0.32% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  5. 05Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)4.7%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  6. 06Heart failure & other heart disease3.7%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.0%
  7. 07Pancreatic cancer3.6%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  8. 08Colorectal cancer3.5%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  9. 09Stroke3.3%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
  10. 10Other digestive disease3.0%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
Show the other 35 causes47% together
  1. 11Other accidents3.0%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  2. 12High blood pressure & other circulatory disease3.0%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  3. 13Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.0%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  4. 14Liver cancer2.8%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  5. 15Alcohol use disorder2.7%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.46%
  6. 16Mouth, throat & larynx cancer2.7%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.97%
  7. 17Other causes2.2%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.7%
  8. 18Leukaemia & lymphoma2.1%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  9. 19Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)2.1%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  10. 20Brain cancer1.9%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
  11. 21COPD & chronic lung disease1.7%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  12. 22Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.7%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  13. 23Oesophageal cancer1.7%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.78%
  14. 24Diabetes1.7%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  15. 25Other lung disease1.6%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  16. 26Stomach cancer1.5%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  17. 27Other mental health conditions1.3%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  18. 28Falls1.2%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  19. 29Prostate cancer1.1%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  20. 30Road accidents1.0%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  21. 31Pneumonia & flu0.99%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  22. 32Kidney cancer0.96%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.68%
  23. 33Bladder cancer0.81%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  24. 34COVID-190.71%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  25. 35Melanoma (skin cancer)0.57%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  26. 36Congenital conditions0.52%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  27. 37Accidental poisoning & overdose0.52%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  28. 38Kidney disease0.48%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  29. 39Drowning0.32%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  30. 40Drug use disorder0.25%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  31. 41Dementia & Alzheimer's0.22%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  32. 42Homicide0.17%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  33. 43Parkinson's disease0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  34. 44Breast cancer0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  35. 45Complications around birth<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 3114, the national suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 52-year-old man in France, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for France (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 52-year-old man in France

If you smoke or used to:

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on the Assurance maladie screening programmes and the 2025 French vaccine calendar. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 50–54 in France?
Lung cancer: 12% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 52-year-old man in France, followed by heart attack & coronary heart disease and other cancers.
What is the chance that a 52-year-old man in France dies in the next year?
0.42% (1 in 239). Over the next 10 years it is 6.3% (1 in 16).
How long can a 52-year-old man in France expect to live?
On average, to about 82 — around 30 more years, based on France's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for a 52-year-old man in France?
Blood pressure check; Bowel cancer screening (stool test); Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Blood sugar test (diabetes). Based on the Assurance maladie screening programmes and the 2025 French vaccine calendar.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for France (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.