Odainn

What are women aged 15–19 in the United Kingdom most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old girl in the United Kingdom, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, accidental poisoning & overdose and other neurological disease — together 41% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.02% (1 in 6,337); over 10 years it is 0.22%.

Next 12 months
0.02%
1 in 6,337
Next 10 years
0.22%
1 in 465
Life expectancy
84
about 67 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide23%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.36%
  2. 02Accidental poisoning & overdose10%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.42%
  3. 03Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)8.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  4. 04Road accidents5.4%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  5. 05Other cancers5.2%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  6. 06Other causes4.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  7. 07Congenital conditions3.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  8. 08Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)3.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  9. 09Leukaemia & lymphoma3.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  10. 10Other digestive disease2.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
Show the other 35 causes30% together
  1. 11Heart failure & other heart disease2.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.3%
  2. 12High blood pressure & other circulatory disease2.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.5%
  3. 13Other accidents2.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  4. 14Brain cancer2.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
  5. 15Pneumonia & flu1.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.8%
  6. 16Diabetes1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  7. 17Stroke1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.4%
  8. 18Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  9. 19Other lung disease1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  10. 20COPD & chronic lung disease1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.6%
  11. 21Breast cancer0.99%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  12. 22Pregnancy & childbirth0.85%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  13. 23Falls0.78%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  14. 24Other mental health conditions0.76%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  15. 25Uterine & ovarian cancer0.75%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  16. 26COVID-190.75%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  17. 27Drowning0.74%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  18. 28Colorectal cancer0.69%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  19. 29Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.65%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  20. 30Homicide0.63%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  21. 31Melanoma (skin cancer)0.47%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
  22. 32Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.36%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.1%
  23. 33Kidney disease0.36%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  24. 34Alcohol use disorder0.33%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  25. 35Kidney cancer0.26%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
  26. 36Drug use disorder0.24%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  27. 37Liver cancer0.24%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.75%
  28. 38Lung cancer0.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  29. 39Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  30. 40Oesophageal cancer0.18%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.69%
  31. 41Cervical cancer0.11%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
  32. 42Complications around birth0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  33. 43Pancreatic cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  34. 44Stomach cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.37%
  35. 45Bladder cancer0.04%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Samaritans on 116 123 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old girl in the United Kingdom, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United Kingdom (2023–2024), ONS, NRS and NISRA. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for women aged 15–19 in the United Kingdom?
Suicide: 23% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old girl in the United Kingdom, followed by accidental poisoning & overdose and other neurological disease.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old girl in the United Kingdom dies in the next year?
0.02% (1 in 6,337). Over the next 10 years it is 0.22% (1 in 465).
How long can a 17-year-old girl in the United Kingdom expect to live?
On average, to about 84 — around 67 more years, based on the United Kingdom's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official ONS, NRS and NISRA mortality statistics for the United Kingdom (2023–2024) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.