Odainn

What are men aged 15–19 in the United Kingdom most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old boy in the United Kingdom, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, accidental poisoning & overdose and road accidents — together 52% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.03% (1 in 2,930); over 10 years it is 0.48%.

Next 12 months
0.03%
1 in 2,930
Next 10 years
0.48%
1 in 208
Life expectancy
80
about 63 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide27%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  2. 02Accidental poisoning & overdose14%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  3. 03Road accidents11%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  4. 04Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)8.2%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  5. 05Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)3.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  6. 06Other cancers3.4%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
  7. 07Heart failure & other heart disease3.0%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.6%
  8. 08Congenital conditions2.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  9. 09Other accidents2.7%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.62%
  10. 10Other causes2.4%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
Show the other 31 causes21% together
  1. 11Leukaemia & lymphoma2.3%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  2. 12Drowning1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  3. 13Other digestive disease1.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  4. 14Homicide1.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  5. 15High blood pressure & other circulatory disease1.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  6. 16Brain cancer1.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.66%
  7. 17Falls1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  8. 18Diabetes1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  9. 19Heart attack & coronary heart disease1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
  10. 20Stroke0.97%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
  11. 21Pneumonia & flu0.90%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.5%
  12. 22Other lung disease0.85%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  13. 23Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.80%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  14. 24COPD & chronic lung disease0.65%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.4%
  15. 25Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.61%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  16. 26Drug use disorder0.36%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  17. 27COVID-190.34%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  18. 28Colorectal cancer0.29%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  19. 29Liver cancer0.27%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  20. 30Kidney disease0.21%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
  21. 31Melanoma (skin cancer)0.18%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
  22. 32Alcohol use disorder0.17%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  23. 33Complications around birth0.16%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  24. 34Lung cancer0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.7%
  25. 35Pancreatic cancer0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  26. 36Other mental health conditions0.12%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  27. 37Stomach cancer0.12%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  28. 38Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  29. 39Kidney cancer0.09%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.76%
  30. 40Bladder cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  31. 41Oesophageal cancer0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Samaritans on 116 123 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in the United Kingdom, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United Kingdom (2023–2024), ONS, NRS and NISRA. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

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Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 15–19 in the United Kingdom?
Suicide: 27% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old boy in the United Kingdom, followed by accidental poisoning & overdose and road accidents.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old boy in the United Kingdom dies in the next year?
0.03% (1 in 2,930). Over the next 10 years it is 0.48% (1 in 208).
How long can a 17-year-old boy in the United Kingdom expect to live?
On average, to about 80 — around 63 more years, based on the United Kingdom's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official ONS, NRS and NISRA mortality statistics for the United Kingdom (2023–2024) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.