Odainn

What are women aged 15–19 in Türkiye most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old girl in Türkiye, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are other accidents, suicide and road accidents — together 80% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.08% (1 in 1,196); over 10 years it is 0.81%.

Next 12 months
0.08%
1 in 1,196
Next 10 years
0.81%
1 in 124
Life expectancy
81
about 64 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's other accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Other accidents70%
    0.57% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  2. 02Suicide5.6%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  3. 03Road accidents3.5%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
  4. 04Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.4%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  5. 05Pneumonia & flu1.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.8%
  6. 06Other causes1.5%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  7. 07Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.5%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  8. 08Leukaemia & lymphoma1.4%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  9. 09Other cancers1.3%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  10. 10Heart failure & other heart disease1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
Show the other 32 causes8.5% together
  1. 11Brain cancer0.72%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.43%
  2. 12Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.70%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 17%
  3. 13Stroke0.62%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.7%
  4. 14High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.62%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.6%
  5. 15Kidney disease0.60%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  6. 16Other digestive disease0.59%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  7. 17Other lung disease0.53%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  8. 18Congenital conditions0.50%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  9. 19Pregnancy & childbirth0.50%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  10. 20Homicide0.46%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  11. 21Accidental poisoning & overdose0.41%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  12. 22Drowning0.33%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  13. 23Falls0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  14. 24Breast cancer0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  15. 25Colorectal cancer0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  16. 26Stomach cancer0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
  17. 27Uterine & ovarian cancer0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  18. 28Diabetes0.17%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  19. 29COPD & chronic lung disease0.14%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  20. 30Melanoma (skin cancer)0.09%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  21. 31Kidney cancer0.09%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  22. 32Cervical cancer0.08%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  23. 33Liver cancer0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
  24. 34Lung cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  25. 35Other mental health conditions0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  26. 36Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
  27. 37Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.04%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  28. 38COVID-190.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.36%
  29. 39Pancreatic cancer0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  30. 40Complications around birth0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  31. 41Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  32. 42Bladder cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

About these numbers. Türkiye's figures are for 2023, the year of the February earthquakes. About 50,000 earthquake deaths are counted under “other accidents”, so that cause is far higher than in an ordinary year — above all for young adults.

For people like a 17-year-old girl in Türkiye, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Türkiye (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for women aged 15–19 in Türkiye?
Other accidents: 70% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old girl in Türkiye, followed by suicide and road accidents.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old girl in Türkiye dies in the next year?
0.08% (1 in 1,196). Over the next 10 years it is 0.81% (1 in 124).
How long can a 17-year-old girl in Türkiye expect to live?
On average, to about 81 — around 64 more years, based on Türkiye's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Türkiye (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.