Odainn

What are men aged 15–19 in Poland most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old boy in Poland, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, road accidents and other injuries — together 53% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.05% (1 in 2,115); over 10 years it is 0.76%.

Next 12 months
0.05%
1 in 2,115
Next 10 years
0.76%
1 in 132
Life expectancy
75
about 58 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide25%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  2. 02Road accidents22%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.87%
  3. 03Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)5.8%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.68%
  4. 04Accidental poisoning & overdose5.0%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  5. 05Other accidents4.8%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  6. 06Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)4.5%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  7. 07Other cancers3.7%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.7%
  8. 08Pneumonia & flu3.5%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.4%
  9. 09Other digestive disease2.7%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  10. 10Falls2.6%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
Show the other 29 causes20% together
  1. 11Drowning2.6%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  2. 12Heart failure & other heart disease2.4%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.0%
  3. 13Leukaemia & lymphoma2.1%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  4. 14Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)1.7%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  5. 15Congenital conditions1.5%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  6. 16Brain cancer1.4%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.67%
  7. 17Stroke1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.3%
  8. 18Other causes1.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  9. 19High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.92%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.8%
  10. 20Homicide0.77%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  11. 21Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.76%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.64%
  12. 22Other lung disease0.69%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  13. 23Diabetes0.59%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  14. 24Alcohol use disorder0.49%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  15. 25Other mental health conditions0.39%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  16. 26Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.32%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 18%
  17. 27Stomach cancer0.25%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  18. 28COVID-190.18%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  19. 29Kidney disease0.17%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.76%
  20. 30Lung cancer0.16%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.3%
  21. 31Drug use disorder0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  22. 32Kidney cancer0.11%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.69%
  23. 33Colorectal cancer0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  24. 34Liver cancer0.08%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.61%
  25. 35Melanoma (skin cancer)0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  26. 36Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  27. 37COPD & chronic lung disease0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  28. 38Oesophageal cancer0.04%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.55%
  29. 39Pancreatic cancer0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 800 70 22 22, the 24-hour support line for adults in crisis — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Poland, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Poland (2023–2024), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 15–19 in Poland?
Suicide: 25% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old boy in Poland, followed by road accidents and other injuries.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old boy in Poland dies in the next year?
0.05% (1 in 2,115). Over the next 10 years it is 0.76% (1 in 132).
How long can a 17-year-old boy in Poland expect to live?
On average, to about 75 — around 58 more years, based on Poland's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Poland (2023–2024) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.