Odainn

What are men aged 40–44 in the United States most likely to die from?

For a 42-year-old man in the United States, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are accidental poisoning & overdose, heart attack & coronary heart disease and suicide — together 33% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.34% (1 in 294); over 10 years it is 4.3%.

Next 12 months
0.34%
1 in 294
Next 10 years
4.3%
1 in 23
Life expectancy
79
about 37 more years on average
The surpriseAt 42, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's accidental poisoning & overdose.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Accidental poisoning & overdose16%
    0.70% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  2. 02Heart attack & coronary heart disease10%
    0.43% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  3. 03Suicide7.0%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  4. 04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease6.2%
    0.26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.2%
  5. 05Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)5.4%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  6. 06Road accidents5.4%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.96%
  7. 07Heart failure & other heart disease4.8%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.0%
  8. 08Diabetes3.8%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  9. 09Other causes3.1%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  10. 10Stroke2.8%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.3%
Show the other 35 causes35% together
  1. 11Homicide2.8%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  2. 12Colorectal cancer2.6%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  3. 13Alcohol use disorder2.6%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.49%
  4. 14Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.5%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  5. 15Other digestive disease2.3%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  6. 16Other cancers2.2%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  7. 17Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)2.2%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  8. 18Lung cancer1.7%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  9. 19Other accidents1.4%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.71%
  10. 20Kidney disease1.4%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  11. 21Pancreatic cancer1.1%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  12. 22Leukaemia & lymphoma1.1%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  13. 23Other lung disease1.1%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  14. 24Brain cancer0.97%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  15. 25Pneumonia & flu0.97%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  16. 26Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.96%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
  17. 27COPD & chronic lung disease0.93%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.6%
  18. 28Falls0.84%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  19. 29Liver cancer0.66%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  20. 30Oesophageal cancer0.65%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
  21. 31Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.59%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.67%
  22. 32Stomach cancer0.55%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
  23. 33Drug use disorder0.54%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  24. 34Kidney cancer0.51%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  25. 35COVID-190.45%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  26. 36Drowning0.40%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  27. 37Congenital conditions0.39%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  28. 38Melanoma (skin cancer)0.33%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
  29. 39Prostate cancer0.21%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  30. 40Bladder cancer0.17%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
  31. 41Other mental health conditions0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  32. 42Dementia & Alzheimer's0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.7%
  33. 43Breast cancer0.04%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  34. 44Parkinson's disease0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  35. 45Complications around birth<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 42-year-old man in the United States, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United States (2023–2024), CDC. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 42-year-old man in the United States

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on USPSTF recommendations and the CDC adult immunization schedule. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 40–44 in the United States?
Accidental poisoning & overdose: 16% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 42-year-old man in the United States, followed by heart attack & coronary heart disease and suicide.
What is the chance that a 42-year-old man in the United States dies in the next year?
0.34% (1 in 294). Over the next 10 years it is 4.3% (1 in 23).
How long can a 42-year-old man in the United States expect to live?
On average, to about 79 — around 37 more years, based on the United States' current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for a 42-year-old man in the United States?
Blood pressure check; Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Blood sugar test (diabetes); Hepatitis C test; HIV test. Based on USPSTF recommendations and the CDC adult immunization schedule.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official CDC mortality statistics for the United States (2023–2024) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.