Odainn

What are men aged 85–89 in the Netherlands most likely to die from?

For an 87-year-old man in the Netherlands, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are dementia & Alzheimer's, heart failure & other heart disease and heart attack & coronary heart disease — together 35% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 12% (1 in 8); over 10 years it is 91%.

Next 12 months
12%
1 in 8
Next 10 years
91%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
92
about 5 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Dementia & Alzheimer's15%
    13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease14%
    13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  3. 03Heart attack & coronary heart disease6.3%
    5.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.3%
  4. 04Stroke6.1%
    5.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.0%
  5. 05Pneumonia & flu5.4%
    4.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.5%
  6. 06Falls5.0%
    4.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.2%
  7. 07Other cancers4.7%
    4.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.6%
  8. 08Prostate cancer4.3%
    3.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  9. 09Other causes3.9%
    3.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  10. 10COPD & chronic lung disease3.5%
    3.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
Show the other 33 causes32% together
  1. 11High blood pressure & other circulatory disease3.3%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  2. 12COVID-193.1%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  3. 13Other digestive disease2.9%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  4. 14Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.8%
    2.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  5. 15Lung cancer2.4%
    2.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  6. 16Kidney disease2.0%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  7. 17Colorectal cancer2.0%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  8. 18Diabetes1.8%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  9. 19Parkinson's disease1.7%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  10. 20Other lung disease1.6%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  11. 21Leukaemia & lymphoma1.5%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  12. 22Other accidents1.3%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  13. 23Bladder cancer1.1%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  14. 24Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.96%
    0.88% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.94%
  15. 25Pancreatic cancer0.67%
    0.61% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.64%
  16. 26Oesophageal cancer0.56%
    0.51% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  17. 27Stomach cancer0.45%
    0.41% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.43%
  18. 28Kidney cancer0.33%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  19. 29Liver cancer0.31%
    0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  20. 30Other mental health conditions0.28%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.28%
  21. 31Melanoma (skin cancer)0.27%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.27%
  22. 32Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.27%
    0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  23. 33Road accidents0.22%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  24. 34Suicide0.14%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  25. 35Brain cancer0.12%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  26. 36Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.09%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  27. 37Alcohol use disorder0.06%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  28. 38Breast cancer0.04%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  29. 39Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  30. 40Congenital conditions0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  31. 41Accidental poisoning & overdose0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  32. 42Drowning0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  33. 43Homicide<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 113, 113 Zelfmoordpreventie — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 87-year-old man in the Netherlands, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the Netherlands (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old man in the Netherlands

If you smoke or used to:

Based on the RIVM population screening programmes and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 85–89 in the Netherlands?
Dementia & Alzheimer's: 15% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for an 87-year-old man in the Netherlands, followed by heart failure & other heart disease and heart attack & coronary heart disease.
What is the chance that an 87-year-old man in the Netherlands dies in the next year?
12% (1 in 8). Over the next 10 years it is 91% (about 9 in 10).
How long can an 87-year-old man in the Netherlands expect to live?
On average, to about 92 — around 5 more years, based on the Netherlands' current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for an 87-year-old man in the Netherlands?
Blood pressure check; Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); Blood sugar test (diabetes). Based on the RIVM population screening programmes and European guidelines.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for the Netherlands (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.