Odainn

What are men aged 85–89 in Germany most likely to die from?

For an 87-year-old man in Germany, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are heart attack & coronary heart disease, heart failure & other heart disease and dementia & Alzheimer's — together 38% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 12% (1 in 8); over 10 years it is 92%.

Next 12 months
12%
1 in 8
Next 10 years
92%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
92
about 5 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease16%
    15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 16%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease13%
    12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  3. 03Dementia & Alzheimer's8.9%
    8.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.0%
  4. 04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease8.4%
    7.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.6%
  5. 05Stroke5.1%
    4.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
  6. 06COVID-194.1%
    3.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  7. 07Other causes3.9%
    3.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  8. 08Pneumonia & flu3.2%
    2.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  9. 09Prostate cancer3.2%
    2.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  10. 10Other cancers3.2%
    2.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
Show the other 35 causes30% together
  1. 11Falls3.0%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  2. 12Kidney disease2.9%
    2.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  3. 13Other digestive disease2.8%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  4. 14COPD & chronic lung disease2.7%
    2.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  5. 15Diabetes2.6%
    2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  6. 16Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.8%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  7. 17Parkinson's disease1.6%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  8. 18Other lung disease1.6%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  9. 19Colorectal cancer1.5%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  10. 20Lung cancer1.4%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  11. 21Leukaemia & lymphoma1.4%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  12. 22Other accidents1.1%
    0.96% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  13. 23Bladder cancer0.91%
    0.84% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.92%
  14. 24Pancreatic cancer0.76%
    0.70% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.72%
  15. 25Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.72%
    0.66% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
  16. 26Suicide0.52%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.50%
  17. 27Stomach cancer0.48%
    0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
  18. 28Kidney cancer0.39%
    0.36% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.37%
  19. 29Liver cancer0.37%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  20. 30Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.29%
    0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.28%
  21. 31Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.24%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  22. 32Oesophageal cancer0.23%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
  23. 33Melanoma (skin cancer)0.22%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  24. 34Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.20%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
  25. 35Other mental health conditions0.17%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  26. 36Road accidents0.11%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  27. 37Brain cancer0.10%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  28. 38Alcohol use disorder0.06%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  29. 39Congenital conditions0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  30. 40Drowning0.02%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  31. 41Breast cancer0.02%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  32. 42Accidental poisoning & overdose0.01%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  33. 43Homicide<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  34. 44Complications around birth<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  35. 45Drug use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call TelefonSeelsorge on 0800 111 0 111 or 0800 111 0 222 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 87-year-old man in Germany, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Germany (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.
Embed this on your site

Free to use with the link back. The image updates when the data does.

These are averages. You aren't average.

Smoking, exercise, weight, alcohol and diet change these numbers. Get your personal numbers and the changes that give you the most years back — free.

Get your numbersTry another age
What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old man in Germany

Based on statutory health insurance (G-BA) screening and STIKO vaccine recommendations. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 85–89 in Germany?
Heart attack & coronary heart disease: 16% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for an 87-year-old man in Germany, followed by heart failure & other heart disease and dementia & Alzheimer's.
What is the chance that an 87-year-old man in Germany dies in the next year?
12% (1 in 8). Over the next 10 years it is 92% (about 9 in 10).
How long can an 87-year-old man in Germany expect to live?
On average, to about 92 — around 5 more years, based on Germany's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for an 87-year-old man in Germany?
Blood pressure check; Bowel cancer screening (stool test); Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Aortic aneurysm scan (ultrasound); Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); Skin cancer check; RSV vaccine; Blood sugar test (diabetes); Shingles vaccine. Based on statutory health insurance (G-BA) screening and STIKO vaccine recommendations.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Germany (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.