Odainn

What are men aged 85–89 in Canada most likely to die from?

For an 87-year-old man in Canada, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are dementia & Alzheimer's, heart attack & coronary heart disease and heart failure & other heart disease — together 38% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 9.9% (1 in 10); over 10 years it is 85%.

Next 12 months
9.9%
1 in 10
Next 10 years
85%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
93
about 6 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Dementia & Alzheimer's16%
    14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 16%
  2. 02Heart attack & coronary heart disease13%
    11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  3. 03Heart failure & other heart disease8.8%
    7.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.9%
  4. 04Stroke4.8%
    4.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.8%
  5. 05Falls4.1%
    3.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  6. 06Other causes3.9%
    3.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  7. 07Prostate cancer3.8%
    3.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  8. 08COVID-193.6%
    3.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  9. 09COPD & chronic lung disease3.6%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  10. 10Pneumonia & flu3.4%
    2.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
Show the other 33 causes35% together
  1. 11Other digestive disease3.4%
    2.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  2. 12High blood pressure & other circulatory disease3.3%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  3. 13Other cancers3.3%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  4. 14Other lung disease3.2%
    2.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  5. 15Lung cancer2.7%
    2.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  6. 16Colorectal cancer2.1%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  7. 17Kidney disease2.1%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  8. 18Leukaemia & lymphoma1.9%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  9. 19Diabetes1.9%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  10. 20Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.9%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  11. 21Parkinson's disease1.7%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  12. 22Bladder cancer1.2%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  13. 23Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.90%
    0.77% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
  14. 24Other accidents0.90%
    0.77% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.90%
  15. 25Pancreatic cancer0.82%
    0.70% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.79%
  16. 26Liver cancer0.55%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
  17. 27Kidney cancer0.45%
    0.38% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
  18. 28Stomach cancer0.40%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
  19. 29Oesophageal cancer0.37%
    0.32% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.36%
  20. 30Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.35%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
  21. 31Melanoma (skin cancer)0.34%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  22. 32Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.33%
    0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  23. 33Other mental health conditions0.20%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
  24. 34Brain cancer0.16%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  25. 35Road accidents0.15%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  26. 36Suicide0.12%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  27. 37Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.11%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  28. 38Alcohol use disorder0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  29. 39Congenital conditions0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  30. 40Accidental poisoning & overdose0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  31. 41Breast cancer0.02%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 42Drowning0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  33. 43Homicide0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide Crisis Helpline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 87-year-old man in Canada, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Canada (2023–2024), Statistics Canada. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.
Embed this on your site

Free to use with the link back. The image updates when the data does.

These are averages. You aren't average.

Smoking, exercise, weight, alcohol and diet change these numbers. Get your personal numbers and the changes that give you the most years back — free.

Get your numbersTry another age
What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old man in Canada

Based on the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care and NACI. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 85–89 in Canada?
Dementia & Alzheimer's: 16% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for an 87-year-old man in Canada, followed by heart attack & coronary heart disease and heart failure & other heart disease.
What is the chance that an 87-year-old man in Canada dies in the next year?
9.9% (1 in 10). Over the next 10 years it is 85% (about 9 in 10).
How long can an 87-year-old man in Canada expect to live?
On average, to about 93 — around 6 more years, based on Canada's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for an 87-year-old man in Canada?
Blood pressure check; Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); RSV vaccine; Blood sugar test (diabetes); Shingles vaccine. Based on the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care and NACI.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Statistics Canada mortality statistics for Canada (2023–2024) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.