Odainn

What are men aged 15–19 in Canada most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old boy in Canada, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are accidental poisoning & overdose, suicide and road accidents — together 66% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.04% (1 in 2,254); over 10 years it is 0.68%.

Next 12 months
0.04%
1 in 2,254
Next 10 years
0.68%
1 in 147
Life expectancy
80
about 63 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's accidental poisoning & overdose.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Accidental poisoning & overdose28%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  2. 02Suicide22%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  3. 03Road accidents16%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.67%
  4. 04Homicide4.4%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  5. 05Other accidents3.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  6. 06Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  7. 07Other cancers2.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
  8. 08Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)2.3%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  9. 09Drowning1.9%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  10. 10Heart failure & other heart disease1.7%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.3%
Show the other 29 causes15% together
  1. 11Congenital conditions1.6%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  2. 12Other causes1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  3. 13Leukaemia & lymphoma1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  4. 14Other digestive disease1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  5. 15Brain cancer1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  6. 16Diabetes1.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  7. 17Pneumonia & flu0.78%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  8. 18Falls0.76%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  9. 19Stroke0.66%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  10. 20Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.62%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  11. 21Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.62%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  12. 22High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.58%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  13. 23Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.54%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  14. 24Alcohol use disorder0.42%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  15. 25Colorectal cancer0.29%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  16. 26COVID-190.27%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  17. 27Other lung disease0.26%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  18. 28Kidney disease0.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  19. 29Drug use disorder0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  20. 30Liver cancer0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  21. 31Stomach cancer0.16%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.66%
  22. 32COPD & chronic lung disease0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  23. 33Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.14%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.78%
  24. 34Other mental health conditions0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  25. 35Complications around birth0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  26. 36Kidney cancer0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.67%
  27. 37Lung cancer0.04%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.3%
  28. 38Pancreatic cancer0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  29. 39Melanoma (skin cancer)0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.46%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide Crisis Helpline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Canada, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Canada (2023–2024), Statistics Canada. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 15–19 in Canada?
Accidental poisoning & overdose: 28% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old boy in Canada, followed by suicide and road accidents.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old boy in Canada dies in the next year?
0.04% (1 in 2,254). Over the next 10 years it is 0.68% (1 in 147).
How long can a 17-year-old boy in Canada expect to live?
On average, to about 80 — around 63 more years, based on Canada's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Statistics Canada mortality statistics for Canada (2023–2024) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.