Odainn
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What is a 17-year-old boy in Belarus most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
17
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.05%
1 in 2,091
Next 10 years
0.75%
1 in 134
Life expectancy
70
about 53 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide21%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  2. 02Road accidents14%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.79%
  3. 03Heart failure & other heart disease11%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.5%
  4. 04Accidental poisoning & overdose10%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  5. 05Other accidents6.4%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  6. 06Drowning5.9%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.56%
  7. 07Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)4.7%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.61%
  8. 08Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.7%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
Show the other 21 causes23% together
  1. 09Other cancers3.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  2. 10Falls2.2%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  3. 11Leukaemia & lymphoma1.9%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  4. 12Brain cancer1.9%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  5. 13Homicide1.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  6. 14Pneumonia & flu1.6%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  7. 15Congenital conditions1.6%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  8. 16Heart attack & coronary heart disease1.4%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 30%
  9. 17High blood pressure & other circulatory disease1.4%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.5%
  10. 18Other digestive disease1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  11. 19Liver cancer0.93%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
  12. 20Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.90%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
  13. 21Stroke0.71%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  14. 22Other causes0.64%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.37%
  15. 23Stomach cancer0.34%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  16. 24Alcohol use disorder0.33%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  17. 25Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.31%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  18. 26Colorectal cancer0.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  19. 27Other mental health conditions0.21%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  20. 28Kidney disease0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
  21. 29Other lung disease0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 133, the national psychological emergency line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

Causes estimated. Belarus publishes deaths by age and deaths by cause, but not the two together, so the split by cause is Odainn's estimate: Belstat's official 2018 totals, spread by the age and cause patterns of Lithuania and Latvia. Life expectancy and the odds of dying are official. How

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Belarus, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Belarus (2018), Belstat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 15–19 in Belarus

How long people like this live: life expectancy.